A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has got something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
